Inflation and media budgets - is there still a link?

In media we measure, we strategise and we adjust our approach. But sometimes it’s only when you put two very different datasets together that the real opportunity emerges.

Analysing the findings of the WFA’s latest Outlook report, which shows global media price inflation holding at around 4% a year, together with the WFA’s Global Media Budgets Survey, conducted with Ebiquity, is a case in point.

Matching these two datasets shows how marketers’ response to rising prices differs depending on where the inflation is found: only for channels which can generate data will they continue to add budget.

Overall, the fastest-growing channels for budget (Retail Media and Connected TV) and the steepest declines (Print, Radio, Linear TV) tell the story plainly. Budgets are moving toward media that generate performance data – not connected with relative price changes.

A short history of channel planning

During the ‘digital revolution’ of the 2010s, much of the budget migration from analogue to digital was framed as ‘spend following eyeballs’. This was justified economically by the argument that it was possible to reach the same audience for a lower price. In short, moving spend to digital allowed marketers to partially offset price inflation.

This was only ever half true (reaching the ‘wrong’ audience at a cheaper price was and still is an inefficient use of money), and the best planning has always been media-neutral: invest where you can reach the right audience at the right moment to drive an action that is worth more than the cost of delivering it.

This context may explain the consequences of 41% of media teams at major multinationals saying they are moving toward outcomes-based planning. The shift signals a move away from simple inflation mitigation and towards decisions grounded in demonstrable impact.

In other words, budget trends today appear less correlated with relative prices than they once were.

You can’t defy the market

Today’s changing spend and budget patterns also reflect a wider trend: auctions and algorithms have flattened the advantage that buying scale used to create. Advertisers can no longer outmuscle, so they must work with the system.

The rising interest in linking media and creative also fits this logic: advertisers want to design content and placements that perform better within auction-driven platforms, not run a disconnected process that assumes scale will do the heavy lifting.

This perspective makes sense of how price operates today. Price matters only when a channel can demonstrate outcomes: if the return is strong enough, any higher costs can be absorbed. Where measurement is weak or missing, however, price loses strategic meaning and inflation becomes a drag that is tougher to justify via hard metrics.

The story across markets points to a planning discipline that has grown up. What once looked like a pragmatic response to rising prices – moving budgets into cheaper digital channels – has evolved into a more sophisticated approach driven by outcomes.

Inflation may no longer be the dominant signal it once was as measurable effectiveness takes over. As a result, budgets increasingly follow demonstrable value rather than low unit costs, reflecting a more thoughtful and mature understanding of what drives business results.

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