Media price inflation falls marginally in WFA’s Outlook poll of predictions

Please note that the Outlook report is WFA member content only. If you'd like to know more about WFA membership, please contact membership@wfanet.org.

The latest Outlook report from WFA reveals that media price inflation is relatively stable, holding at 3.1% in 2024 from 3.2% in 2023*. However, beneath this lies a more intricate narrative, with numerous uncertainties looming over the forecast for 2024.

The report, compiled from media price forecasts provided by nine participants including media agency groups and auditors, covers fourteen media channels across thirty-four markets, offering a nuanced view of the global media landscape.

Want to find out more? Attend one of our webinars with Mark Gallagher, Executive Vice President, Global Investment at Omnicom Media Group and one of the contributors to Outlook. He will provide a detailed account of how the global media market is expected to evolve in the coming months and years.

Notably, TV inflation globally is set to cool from 6.6% in 2023 to 5.6% in 2024, driven by the US experiencing a significant reduction from 9% to 4%. However, the forecast for 2024 upfronts suggests modest price increases of 1%, excluding sports, with scatter seeing much larger inflation forecasts. We scarcely need reminding it is election year in the US, which has significant (state-level) effects on spend, and this year is proving particularly challenging to forecast.

To address member requests we have updated Outlook to break UK TV down by major trading audience. This additional detail shows that after price deflation in 2023, TV prices are expected to increase significantly in 2024, with a forecast inflation rate of +7% for Adults and ABC1 Adults, and even higher for other audiences. Q1 looks particularly severe, with every participant flagging that a drop-off in viewing has driven inflation higher. Meanwhile, other UK media channels are projected to experience mid-to-low single-digit inflation rates.

Regionally, Europe is forecast to experience higher inflation rates compared to North America and APAC in 2024. However, this is attributed to weakness in TV viewing in Europe, rather than indicative of positive market conditions. Notably, Germany's inflation rate is expected to ease from 5.1% to 4.7% in 2024, while France anticipates a bump from 4.2% to 4.5%, driven by the summer Olympics in Paris. Perhaps French OOH is the most interesting media channel, with 2024 inflation forecast at a relatively high 5%, and some participants forecasting much higher. A two-week event in one city can have a powerful effect on a country’s entire media ecosystem across the year.

APAC follows the global story of gentler inflation in 2024 than 2023. Whilst media price inflation is picking up in Japan, it is still forecast to be only 2.6% in 2024 from 1.5% in 2023. Participants have noted how Japan has avoided the high inflation affecting Western economies in the recent past, and media prices have followed suit.

The media channel which has disrupted the gentle reduction cited earlier is Retail Media. At a global level, prices are forecast to inflate 4.8% in 2024 on top of 4.3% in 2023. This media channel is rapidly expanding, with WFA research showing it will account for 16% total media budgets in 2024 (up from 8% in 2022), underlining the requirement for significant attention to its management.

Despite the positive signs of a return to long-term trends after the disruptions of the Covid years, uncertainties abound, and participants do caution against premature relief. With the ongoing generational shift in viewing habits, worldwide geo-politics on edge, and hyper-inflation persisting in Argentina and Turkey, the expectation is changes to media prices can and will occur rapidly, and so teams must remain vigilant to ensure best use of media budgets.

Want to find out more? Attend one of our webinars with Mark Gallagher, Executive Vice President, Global Investment at Omnicom Media Group and one of the contributors to Outlook. He will provide a detailed account of how the global media market is expected to evolve in the coming months and years.

Session 1 Tuesday, April 23: 3 p.m. London | 4 p.m. CET | 10 a.m. New York
Session 2 Thursday, May 2: 9 a.m. London | 10 a.m CET | 4 p.m. Singapore

*Note these overall figures exclude hyper-inflation markets Turkey and Argentina. Including them takes the overall figures to 3.7% and 3.6% respectively.